Navigating Summer Melt in Higher Education

According to the Brookings Institution, 10-20% of high school seniors who are admitted to a college and indicate that they intend to attend never actually show up on the first day of class. This drop in enrollment is well known in the higher ed industry as the summer melt phenomenon. According to the Enrollify.org Blog, “Some is just inevitable, but research shows that much of it can be prevented with strategic engagement and support.”

Reasons Behind Summer Melt

There are many reasons behind the Summer Melt. Simply put, some families are willing to sacrifice non-refundable tuition deposits to keep options open. This stresses the need for admissions offices to start recruitment as soon as a potential student submits an inquiry.

So why do students melt? Years of research data show that the reasons include:

• Student Stress Factors
  • Social anxiety
  • Teenage tendency to procrastinate
  • Financial concerns
  • Distance from the campus
  • Absence of parental guidance (especially among first-generation students)
• Financial Aid Process Friction
  • Unclear deadlines
  • Confusion over paperwork
  • Inconsistent communication

New Challenges with Summer Melt

In 2025, institutions are dealing with an even more challenging summer melt experience. Some colleges have adopted the term “Intentional Melt” in recent years to describe the trend of students who deposit at more than one school, giving them more time to decide and appeal for additional financial aid. At the same time, college applicants and their families are looking for a better student experience.

Institutions can meet these expectations and improve melt by offering:

• Faster financial aid packaging
• Personalized, consistent communication
• Robust online portals that are user friendly
• Guidance on FAFSA completion and next steps

When students feel informed and supported, they are more likely to follow through and show up in the fall.

Mitigating Melt

What have colleges done in the past to mitigate melt? Institutions have learned that they must start the recruitment process early and provide estimated financial aid awards faster, even if it is just a Merit scholarship to acknowledge student success.

Colleges can keep incoming students engaged by:

• Promoting alumni success stories
• Highlighting professor-to-student ratios
• Emphasizing great things about the campus
• Publishing faculty experiences & accomplishments

Admissions offices also realized that they must employ a multi-model approach and connect with potential students via different communication channels such as texts, emails, phone calls, and social media.

Schools started tracking things such as the number of emails opened, how many times the student visited campus, how much the student is logging into the college portal, have they completed items off a new student check list (such as speaking with advisement and completed dorm surveys, and finally have they completed the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA).

Using AI to Estimate Melt

With recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), Admissions offices have a powerful tool to better estimate summer melt. AI enables financial aid departments with faster calculations and datapoints to generate predictive modeling, assign melt scores, and personalize communications to prospective students.  But AI is just one piece of the puzzle. Institutions can make an impact by aligning cross-functional teams, simplifying communications, and improving student follow-up.

Reducing Summer Melt: Georgia State University

One of the first colleges to utilize AI to help reduce summer melt was Georgia State University (GSU). As highlighted by the Brookings Institution, GSU implemented a chatbot named Pounce to answer student questions 24/7 via text messages.

GSU shares on their website, “In 2016, during the first summer of implementation, Pounce delivered more than 200,000 answers to questions asked by incoming freshmen, and the university reduced summer melt by 22%.  This translated into an additional 324 students sitting in their seats for the first day of classes at Georgia State rather than sitting out the college experience.”

GSU’s research showed how, nine years ago, a chatbot could make a substantial difference.  With the daily advancements in artificial intelligence now available, summer melt might not be the profane phrase it used to be.

Xavier University’s Strategy for Summer Melt

I have worked in financial aid and student accounts for 23 years, and this fall my son will be starting as a freshman at Xavier University in Cincinnati.  I share this information because we have been extremely impressed with the Xavier approach to mitigating summer melt.

Xavier makes onboarding a campus wide priority and it shows:

Local Outreach Events: We attended an Accepted Students event near us at Highmark Stadium, where alumni and parents of currently enrolled students from Western New York were present for Q&A. In the spirit of making it engaging, we also received a behind-the-scenes tour of the stadium.

Celebratory Commitment Moments: During Preview Day on campus for students who were ready to commit and deposit at the school did so in the Cintas Center, their basketball arena where they were treated like 5-star recruits – complete with mascots and photo ops.

Summer-long Engagement: Over the summer, Xavier offers bi-weekly webinars for students and parents on a wide range of topics, including financial aid, dorm selection, advisement, and registration.  If we are unable to attend, pre-recorded videos are available on the user-friendly student and parent portals.

Transparent, Accessible Information: Information portals provide easy access to financial aid award letters, payment plan information, and reminders of what needs to be completed next on a checklist.

At Xavier, it is evident that onboarding new students is a campus-wide priority, and all staff and faculty are bought in.  Xavier also offers a program for students who require additional support during the transition to college. This is a huge help to first-generation students.

Finally, I found Xavier and specifically my son’s program on LinkedIn and started following both.  The information on LinkedIn solidifies that my son made a great college choice, and we are proud he will be a Musketeer this fall.

Easing the Summer Melt Headache

Summer Melt used to be a headache for colleges. It made it difficult to predict the eventual class size, which is crucial information for colleges to plan accordingly, including housing and the number of faculty needed.  However, a new era of financial aid is here. Institutions like Xavier University and Georgia State University have demonstrated that summer melt can be mitigated by employing innovative approaches.

The summer melt challenge is an opportunity for institutions to adopt strategies that lead to:

• A better enrollment model
• A better operating model
• A better student experience
• Better peace of mind

Ready to go deeper?
Summer Melt is just one symptom of a larger challenge—and the institutions seeing real results are building smarter financial aid models from the ground up.

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